Ukraine Conflict: Impact On European & Asian Supply Chains: July Updates

In this article we provide daily news updates concerning the geo-political, commercial and trade impact created by the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine with an emphasis on European-Asian supply chains, trade and reinvestment.

Thursday, July 28

• Russia Doing Better Than Expected Despite Sanctions – IMF

• West running out of measures to put pressure on Russia

• Russia distances itself from the US dollar further as it moves to trade oil with India using the UAE’s local currency

• Iran says US dollar officially ditched in trade with ally Russia

• IMF expects Russia’s GDP to fall 6% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023

• First Russian transit train with sanctioned cargo arrives in Kaliningrad

• Is the INSTC Russia’s new economic escape route?

• Russia emphasizes need to unlock Afghanistan’s frozen assets

• McDonald’s reveals cost of Russia exit

Wednesday, July 27

• IMF slashes global growth forecast and raises inflation projections

• EU renews sanctions against Russia until January 31, 2023

• EU Plans To Ration Gas Over Winter

• Central Bank of Russia business climate index returns to positive territory in June for first time since February

• German Vice Chancellor warns of ‘serious situation’ amid reducing Russian gas supply

• Ex-German Chancellor Schroeder arrives in Russia for talks on gas supplies

• European gas prices soar after Russia deepens supply cuts

• Russia ready to sell oil to any country – Lavrov

• Russia to Exit International Space Station ‘After 2024,’ Space Chief Confirms

• Russia to build own space station – Roscosmos CEO

• ATMs in Cuba begin to accept Mir payment system cards

Tuesday, July 26

• Gazprom Says to Cut EU Nord Stream Gas Deliveries Drastically From Wednesday

• Gazprom sees new record for daily gas supplies to China via Power of Siberia

• Russia’s Sergei Lavrov seeks to bolster alliances during Africa tour

• Foreigners’ obligations on special investment contracts can be transferred with legal entities to new owners from Russia

• Number of domestic AI solutions implemented in Russia to double by 2024

• Finland doesn’t plan to stop issuing visas to Russian tourists

• Russia not asking for sanctions removal – Lavrov

• Yandex resumes hiring in Russia, abroad

Monday, July 25

• The tide is turning in Russia’s war on Ukraine

• Sanctions Are Hurting the West More Than Russia

• Black Sea grain corridor to begin functioning in coming days, Erdogan says

• Hungary FM in Russia to Discuss Buying More Gas

• Russia FM visits Egypt at start of Africa trip

• Kherson Region creates election committee for referendum on joining Russia

• Referendum on Luhansk joining Russia to be held at 492 polling stations

• Transnistria to keep course towards joining Russia

• Lithuanian railroads resume Kaliningrad-bound cargo transit

• USA Considering Declaring Russia A Sponsor Of State Terrorism

• Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 1.5 pp to 8% per annum

• Russia announces plan for bond market

Friday, July 22

• EU solidarity frays as some member states question plan to slash gas use

• Russia adds Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia to its unfriendly countries list

• Transnistria to keep course towards joining Russia

• Agreement on Ukrainian grain exports expected to be signed in Istanbul

• Foreign Banks Hiring Russian Employees as Exit Plans Hit Roadblocks

• Russian Central Bank hasn’t yet received request for purchase of HSBC’s Russian subsidiary, deal not under consideration

• Russian Energy Ministry: Problem of isolation of Kaliningrad, Crimea from gas supply solved

• Nornickel considering transshipping via North African ports, intensification of deliveries via eastern corridor

Thursday, July 21

• Putin predicts ‘revolutionary’ changes

• Russia resumes gas flow through Nord Stream

• Germany resumes receiving Nord Stream gas after repairs

• Why EU’s winter gas plans face an uphill struggle

• Russia to cut oil exports to world markets if price caps are imposed

• Russia may seek to occupy more territory in Ukraine: Lavrov

• Economic cooperation among Central Asian countries needed amid sanctions wars

• Gazprom supplies record daily volume of Russian gas to China via Power of Siberia

• Ukraine conflict forcing China to rethink ‘how and when’ it may invade Taiwan

Wednesday, July 20

• Russian Gas Shutoff Would Send Some EU Countries Into Recession: IMF

• Iran Hosts Putin, Erdogan for Talks

• Russia ratifies Iran-EAEU Free Trade Act

• Gazprom signs major deal in Iran worth billions

• Kazakhstan and Russia to further enhance cooperation within multilateral formats in Asia

• Tajikistan diversifies supply of grain, sugar; Russia replaced with Kazakhstan, India

• China dumping American debt – Treasury data

• VTB deputy chair expects Russian Central Bank to cut key rate 50 bps to 9% pa on Friday

• VTB to start testing cross-border transfers by phone number via SFPS

• EU to add Sberbank to sanctions list

Tuesday, July 19

• Ukraine withdraws from CIS agreement on cooperation in customs affairs

• Ukraine warns of big cuts to wheat harvest

• European energy firms rack up debt to cover soaring costs – Bloomberg

• EU to call on member states to ‘immediately’ slash gas usage

• Russia’s Gazprom to Europe: Gas supply halt beyond our control

• Russia to introduce new budget rule of $60 per barrel of oil

• Kremlin on sanctions: What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger

• Iran preparing documents to join SCO

• H&M to Wind Down Operations in Russia

Monday, July 18

• Ukraine accuses US and European banks over Russia links

• EU executive proposes import ban on Russian gold, tweaks on food trade

• Russia not interested in nationalising foreign enterprises

• Vladimir Putin Signs Bill Banning Crypto Payments in Russia

• Russia Current Account Hits Record on Surging Energy Exports

• Russia launches new chartered ships to trade commodities with China and India

• India exempted from sanctions over Russia trade

• India’s move on rupee settlements may help trade with Russia

• INSTC Route Between India & Russia To See Volume Increases From Next Month

• India Imports from Russia jump 272% in April-May to US$5 billion

Friday, July 15

• World is on its way to multipolarity, Western dominance about to end – Tony Blair

• Germany lacking gas to get through winter, regulator chief warns

• Russian fuel is flooding the Middle East – Bloomberg

• Recession risk warning issued for top Western economies

• Kazakhstan Seeks to Attract Foreign Brands Exiting Russia

• Iran, Russia trade transactions based on ruble improve

• Iran opens business center in Russia

• Kyrgyzstan significantly increases exports to Russia

Thursday, July 14

• Ukraine: can Russia still win the war?

• Why a price cap on Russian oil is a bad idea

• Russia is about to play its most dangerous cards – and the west is not ready

• Moscow shaping stance on EU guidance for Kaliningrad transit

• Russia suspends certificates of Czech, Bulgarian aircraft repair

• Iran allocates containers to sea trade with Russia

• India’s move to rupee for trade set to boost business with Russia

• Russia can help convert 16.38% of India’s trade into rupees

• Petersburg Social Commercial Bank may be a focal point of India-Russia rupee trade

Wednesday, July 13

• Putin creates post of Deputy Prime Minister of Industry and Trade

• Split in global sports to widen if Russia is barred from 2024 Olympics

• Central Bank of Russia will continue to encourage banks to reject ‘unfriendly’ currencies, develop market for ‘friendly’ ones

• Putin, Tokayev reaffirm course towards strengthening Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership, implementation of projects

• Belarus applies for admission to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

• Lithuania widens curbs on Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning

• Kazakhstan reintroduces restrictions on exporting petroleum products

• Russian govt earmarks US$1.6 billion for Sfera satellite project – Roscosmos

• Auto sales in Russia to decline by 28% in 2022 in current market situation

Tuesday, July 12

• Russian companies launch regular sea transportation to India & China

• Putin expands simplified Russian citizenship acquisition to all Ukrainians

• Russia turns off gas pipeline to Germany for repairs

• Kaliningrad proposes ban on movement of goods from Baltic states

• Ban on sanctioned goods’ exports to, imports from Russia takes effect in Estonia

• EU Sanctions Policy Is Leading To Dark Days For Northern Europe

• Iran’s private banks pioneers in trade with Russia

• RBI allows settlement in Indian rupee to settle trade with Russia, Sri Lanka

• Russian Central Bank clarifies procedure for Eurobond payments to holders whose rights are accounted for by Russian depositories

• Ritz-Carlton Moscow Changes Name After Marriott Exits Russia

Monday, July 11

• Germany braces for ‘nightmare’ of Russia turning off gas for good

• Siemens wants to return Nord Stream turbine from Canada to Europe as soon as possible

• Canada waives Russia sanctions to ease Germany’s gas shortage

• German Trade Union Chief Warns Russia Gas Cut-Off May Cripple Country’s Firms

• Russia Expands Trade Routes with China, India

• A new corridor for India-Russia trade via Iran is almost ready

• Financial firms eye Chinese yuan payment channel for India-Russia trade

• Official: Iran, Russia Trade Exchanges Increase to $4.5bln

• Bahrain; Russia discuss economic and trade cooperation

• Russia, Kazakhstan set to create new logistic corridors

• Western economic blitzkrieg against Russia failing, though sanctions are damaging

• Fast Food Giant Yum Brands Announces Plans to Leave Russia

Friday, July 8

• Lavrov criticizes Western doublethink on Ukraine at G20 event

• Lavrov Walks Out of G20 Talks as West Presses Moscow on Ukraine

• Russia has no intention to talk US into resuming mutual contacts

• Lavrov to meet with Turkish, Chinese counterparts at G20

• Russia Replaces Disappearing Western Gadgets With Chinese Brands

• Russia, Iran discuss financing projects in transport infrastructure, oil and gas sector

• Russian Railways retains membership in International Union of Railways

• Two international brands entered Russian market in H1

• Situation in Russian economy turning out better than expected – minister

• Russian Ruble Drops 17% Amid Falling Exports

Thursday, July 7

• How Putin will participate in G20 summit will depend on state of global affairs

• Blinken plans no talks with Lavrov on sidelines of G20 meeting

• Putin ‘rubbing hands with glee’ after EU votes to class gas and nuclear as green

• Russia on the frontline of building a new world — Venezuela

• Putin, President of Sri Lanka discuss trade, economic cooperation, including in energy sphere

• Norway clears Russian goods to Spitsbergen settlements

• External forces behind Karakalpakstan riots – Uzbek president

• HSBC closes in on deal to sell Russian business to Expobank

• Tinkoff Bank halts outgoing currency transfers via SWIFT until October 1

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

• Switzerland resists Ukrainian plan to seize frozen Russian assets

• Fast Food Giant Yum Brands Announces Plans to Leave Russia

• Why Sanctioning Oligarchs is a Gift to Russia

• EAEU states to create technological platform in aircraft industry

• Norilsk and Rusal in talks to forge $60bn Russian metals champion

• Kazakhstan bans petroleum product exports for six months

• Belaruskali begins exporting potash fertilizer via Russian ports

• Russian economy could lose up to 1.5 tillion rubles due to bottlenecks on eastern railways

Tuesday, July 5

• Europe At Risk of Recession Amid Concerns Russia Could Cut Gas Supplies

• Europe Scrambles for Palladium as Russia Threatens Supply

• Russia Ready To Discuss Permanent UNSC Seats for India & Brazil

• Egypt Plans To Use Ruble in Trade with Russia

• Russian Industry and Trade Ministry Doesn’t See Need To Import Substitute Software

• Foreign Partners To Participate In Russian Auto Enterprises

• Newly Sanctioned Kamaz Confirms Plans to Build Manufacturing Plants in Kazakhstan

• Russia To Occupy 25% of Global Coal Market by 2050

• Gazprom Proposes Extending Gas Sales For Rubles To LNG

• Schneider Electric Signs Agreement to Sell Russian Assets to Local Management

Monday, July 4

• War Excites Speculation About The Possible Break-Up of Russia

• Kissinger says Ukraine Crisis Has Three Possible Outcomes

• Excluding Russia from Security Council Possible Only if UN is Disbanded

• Russia Quits Several Council of Europe Agreements

• JPMorgan Sees ‘Stratospheric’ $380 Oil On Worst-Case Russian Cut

• Western Actions Prompt Russia, Belarus To Expedite Integration

• Putin Discusses Global Food Market Situation With Modi

• Russia Adopts Resolution To Convert Export Duties On Grain, Sunflower Oil and Meal Into Rubles

• Aeroflot Plans To Open New Regional Hubs For Operating New Types of Aircraft

• Russia Introduces Zero VAT for Hotels From July 1

• Donetsk To Receive Russian Phone IDD Code

• Nord Stream To Shut Down Both EU Gas Pipelines July 11-21 For Repairs

Friday, July 1

• Putin: Multipolar World Order Evolving Globally, Process Irreversible

• NATO’s Strategic Concept 2022 Views 75% Of The BRICS Economies A Security Threat – Analysis

• NATO Brings Back Cold War Doctrine to Counter Russian Threat

• Beijing Hits Out at Nato Strategy for ‘Malicious Attack’ on China

• Russia has Redirected Most Oil, Petroleum Products to Asia

• Russia Ready to Export 50 million Tonnes of Grain This Year

• Syria Makes Decision to Recognize Luhansk and Donetsk Republics

• Gazprom to Increase Gas Supplies to Russia’s Kaliningrad