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India’s GDP Growth For 2021-22 Revised To 8.9%: Second Advance Estimates

Posted: 15th March 2022 11:39

The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation recently released a press note for the second advance estimates of India’s GDP (National Income) for the Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, revising the GDP growth rate to 8.9%, from the previous 9.2% as projected in the first advance estimates.

The press note shows data for National Income at both constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

What Are The Second Advance Estimates For India’s National Income In FY 2021-22?

  • Real GDP: According to the data, the growth in GDP at constant prices (2011-12), also known as real GDP, during FY 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9% as compared to the contraction of 7.3% in FY 2020-21. This growth value estimation is lower than the 9.2% estimated in the first advance estimates. In terms of value, real GDP for the year 2021-22 is estimated at INR 147.72 trillion as against as against the provisional GDP estimate of INR 135.13 trillion for FY 2020-21.
  • Nominal GDP: The growth in GDP at current prices, also known as nominal GDP, during FY 2021-22 is estimated at 19.4%. For FY 2021-22, the nominal GDP is estimated at INR 236.44 trillion as against INR 198.01 trillion in 2020-21.

What Is The Methodology Employed For GDP Estimates Compilation?

The Advance Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method. It means that the estimates available for the previous year referred to as the benchmark year (FY 2020-21, in this case) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors.

What Are The Sectoral Growth Estimates For FY 2021-22?

The second advance estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity show a positive growth across sectors, with mining and quarrying, public administration, manufacturing, and trade, hospitality and communication industries projected to register the fastest growth.

These estimates have been compiled using indicators including:

  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
  • Financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available up to quarter ending December, 2021
  • Second advance estimates of crop production
  • Production of major livestock products in rainy season
  • Accounts of Central and State Governments
  • Bank deposits and credits
  • Net ton kilometers and passenger kilometers for railways
  • Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation
  • Cargo handled at major sea ports
  • Data for sale of commercial vehicles, etc., available for first 9-10 months of FY 2021-22

Further, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies for Centre were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and nutrient based subsidy.

Percentage Change In Second Advance Estimates Of GVA (at Basic Prices) By Economic Activity

Industry

Percentage Change Over Previous Year (%)

2020-21

2021-22

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing

3.3

3.3

Mining and quarrying

-8.6

12.6

Manufacturing

-0.6

10.5

Electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services

 

-3.6

7.8

Construction

-7.3

10.0

Trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting          

-20.2

 

11.6

 

Financial, real estate, and professional services

2.2

4.3

Public administration, defense, and other services*

-5.5

 

12.5

GVA at basic prices

-4.8

8.3

 

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